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ICBC Global Financial Market Daily Review--December 8, 2016
 

I. Yesterday's News
1. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi tendered his resignation to the head of state on Wednesday after a bruising referendum loss at the weekend, with most parliamentary factions pushing for an early election in a few months' time. President Sergio Mattarella asked Renzi to carry on in a caretaker capacity while he holds consultations with the political parties to decide the next steps, a statement from the president's office said. The consultations will begin on Thursday at 1700 GMT and are due to end on Saturday afternoon. After the consultations Mattarella is widely expected to ask a member of Renzi's cabinet, or a politician from his Democratic Party to try to form a new government.

2. Rating agency Moody's expects that Italy's debt burden will increase next year as the country's subdued growth outlook leaves little scope for any material reduction in the country's very high debt burden over coming years. In Moody's view, the popular rejection of constitutional reform in Sunday's referendum poses a further threat to the achievement of these reforms, diminishing likelihood that the Italian government will make meaningful further progress on the structural economic and fiscal reforms. Italy's headline deficit is expected to be 2.4 percent of GDP in 2016, missing by some margin the target of 1.8 percent set in the 2015 Stability Programme.

3. Falls in sterling since the Brexit vote failed to boost Britain's manufacturers in October as industrial output, also hit by a shutdown at the country's largest oilfield, suffered its biggest monthly drop since 2012. Industrial production sank 1.3 percent, Office for National Statistics data showed on Wednesday - a steeper decline than any economist had forecast in a Reuters poll.

4. Australia's economy shrank for the first time in over five years last quarter as businesses, consumers and government all cut back on spending, an unexpected blow that will challenge policymakers' optimism for growth. The local dollar sank about half a cent after the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, from the second when it rose a revised 0.6 percent. That was the first contraction since early 2011 and only the fourth since the country's last recession in 1991.

5. The Bank of Canada pointed to undiminished uncertainty and a "significant amount" of slack in the Canadian economy as it held interest rates steady on Wednesday. Dropping its usual language about the balance of risks, the Bank of Canada said the current state of monetary policy "remains appropriate." The Canadian dollar gained 0.3 percent against the greenback in New York.

II. Market Overview
FX
The dollar against a basket of six major currencies dipped 0.26 percent to 100.23, but held above a three-week low of 99.849 reached on Monday. The euro was last up 0.37 percent against the dollar, at $1.0756, after hitting a three-week high of $1.0796 on Monday. The Canadian dollar gained 0.3 percent after the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady on Wednesday

Precious Metals
Gold extended its rise on Wednesday, rebounding from this week's 10-month low as the dollar eased against the euro ahead of a European Central Bank meeting and on the view that a U.S. rate rise next week was already reflected in prices. Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,173.32 an ounce, up from Monday's 10-month low at $1,157. U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up 0.6 percent at $1,177.50.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices slid on Wednesday on bearish U.S. petroleum inventory data and doubts that production cuts promised by OPEC and Russia would be deep enough to end a supply overhang. Brent futures fell 93 cents, or 1.7 percent, to settle at $53.00 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost $1.16, or 2.3 percent, to settle at $49.77.

2. Base Metals
Copper gave up earlier gains on Wednesday as concerns that the metal's rally had become overstretched outweighed prospects of higher demand from the world's largest economies. Three-month copper on the London Metal's Exchange ended 1.7 percent lower at $5,785 a tonne. The best-performing LME metal this year, zinc, fell 1.5 percent to $2,740 while nickel shed 1.7 percent to $11,410 per tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, with the 30-year yield on track for its biggest drop in more than three months, as disappointing overseas economic data reduced optimism about global growth ahead of a European Central Bank meeting. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was down 5 basis points from late Tuesday at 2.342 percent. The 30-year yield was 3.020 percent, down 6 basis points. Two-year Treasury yield was down over 1 basis point at 1.104 percent.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street surged on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials and S&P 500 hitting fresh records, as equities continued their march upward after the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president, and a new high for transportation stocks added to the bullish tone. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 297.84 points, or 1.55 percent, to 19,549.62, the S&P 500 gained 29.12 points, or 1.32 percent, to 2,241.35 and the Nasdaq Composite added 60.76 points, or 1.14 percent, to 5,393.76.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks rose for the second day on Wednesday, lifted by energy and raw materials sectors, but trading was thin as investors were cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Both the benchmark Hang Seng index and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index added 0.6 percent, to 22,800.92 points and 9,829.58 points respectively.


(2016-12-08)
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