I. Yesterday's News International News 1. U.S. economic growth slowed less than previously reported in the fourth quarter as robust consumer spending provided a boost that was partially offset by the largest gain in imports in two years. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate instead of the previously reported 1.9 percent pace, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Despite the upward revision to the fourth quarter, the economy grew only 1.6 percent for all of 2016, its worst performance since 2011. The dollar was slightly stronger against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries fell. U.S. stocks were trading higher.
2. Prospects for the U.S. economy have brightened now that fiscal stimulus from Washington appears more likely, so the Federal Reserve will need to keep raising rates and eventually trim its bond portfolio to avoid an overheating, one of the most influential Fed policymakers said on Thursday. The comments from New York Fed President William Dudley, while sounding some cautious notes, were perhaps his most optimistic in years and reinforced the notion that the core U.S. central bankers are confidently on the road to tighter monetary policy after having hiked interest rates twice in three months.
3. The European Commission's monthly sentiment survey showed the main index dipped to 107.9 points from 108.0 in February, remaining well above its long-term average of 100. The consumer index of price trends over the next 12 months rose to 15.3 points from 14.5 in February, the highest since October 2013. The indicator for selling price expectations among manufacturers rose to 9.8 points from 9.0 in February, the highest since July 2011. The index of services sector dropped to 12.7 from 13.9 points, and in industry, where it fell to 1.2 points from 1.3.
4. The European Parliament said on Wednesday that Brexit could be reversed, but if Britain pursued divorce from the EU it should first settle its bill and protect citizens' rights before a new trade deal with the bloc can be discussed. In a draft resolution published on the day that Britain formally triggered the two-year process to leave the European Union, senior EU lawmakers said there could be transitional arrangements to smooth the UK's departure but they should not last more than three years. Conservative British Prime Minister Theresa May declared on Wednesday there was no turning back from Brexit.
5. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata said on Thursday there is no need to buy U.S. Treasury debt now because the BOJ is able to achieve sufficient monetary easing through purchases of Japanese government bonds. "We can achieve our 2 percent inflation target and seek an eventual exit from our quantitative easing program without buying U.S. Treasury debt," Iwata told parliament.
6. An attempted merger between Deutsche Boerse and the London Stock Exchange was struck down by European regulators on Wednesday, formally ending the deal. A merger would have created Europe's biggest stock exchange. But the European Commission objected, saying the deal, which was the pair's fifth attempt to combine, would have resulted in a monopoly in the processing of bond trades.
7. South Africa's ruling African National Congress party is split at the top over whether Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan should be sacked, sources said on Wednesday. President Jacob Zuma wants to replace Gordhan and has the support of party Chairwoman Baleka Mbete and Deputy Secretary-General Jessie Duarte, the sources said. But Deputy President, Secretary-General and Treasurer-General want Gordhan to remain and have expressed their opinion to Zuma, according to the sources. As Gordhan's future hung in the balance, more volatile trading in the rand currency underlined his reputation as an emblem of South Africa's stability among investors.
Domestic News 8. China is likely to continue to see deficit in current account, capital and financial account this year, while cross-border capital flow could be more balanced, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said. China's current account surplus is likely to be kept "within a reasonable range" this year, and capital and financial account deficit is expected to narrow down, the regulator said. There will be greater flexibility in the yuan's exchange rate in 2017 as the reform on China yuan pushes forward, and increased yuan flexibility will help promote two-way cross-border capital flows, it said.
9. China needs a more comprehensive and feasible plan to push forward its reform, and set up an effective communication mechanism for local governments, as monetary policy is not a panacea, a Chinese media reported.
10. The Ministry of Finance issued Temporary Method on Management of State-Owned Capital Operation Budget, specifying that state-owned capital budget shall be used in capital injection in state-own enterprises, in dealing with remaining problems of state-own enterprises, and in financing relevant reforms. Capital can be provided to investment and operation firms, industrial investment funds, and state-owned enterprises.
II. Market Overview FX 1. Global Market The dollar rose to a two-week high on Thursday as a combination of technical trading and strong U.S. economic data and potential weakness in the euro zone weighed down the continental currency. The euro fell to $1.0681, its lowest level since March 15. The move added to the dollar's gains against a basket of major currencies. The dollar index was modestly higher before the euro's selloff, and it rose to 100.52, its highest level since March 16.
2. Home Market China's yuan fell against the dollar on Thursday, despite of a higher the midpoint rate. Some investors triggered stop-loss in their shorts on overnight dollar as the dollar index extended gains, but failed to prevent yuan's prices from falling around 6.8950 per dollar.
Precious Metals Gold dipped on Thursday as the dollar strengthened, but losses were capped by continuing economic uncertainty around Britain's departure from the European Union and approaching French elections. Spot gold was down 0.7 percent at $1,242.90 an ounce and U.S. gold futures settled down 0.7 percent at $1,245.
Commodities 1.Crude Oil Oil prices jumped for a third day on Thursday to their highest in three weeks after Kuwait backed an extension of OPEC production cuts to reduce a global glut. Brent crude oil settled up 54 cents, or about 1 percent, to $52.96 a barrel. U.S. crude settled up 84 cents, or 1.7 percent, higher at $50.35 a barrel.
2.Base Metals London Metal Exchange aluminium closed 0.6 percent higher at $1,972 after hitting $1,981, the highest since December 2014. Three-month copper ended up 0.8 percent at $5,955 a tonne after touching $5,985, the highest since March 2.
U.S. Treasuries 1. U.S. bonds U.S. Treasury debt yields drifted higher on Thursday after data showed the final U.S. gross domestic product number for the fourth quarter was revised higher, reflecting a steady growth path for the world's largest economy. In late trading, benchmark 10-year notes fell 9/32 in price to yield 2.419 percent. U.S. 30-year bond prices fell 24/32, yielding 3.031 percent.
2. Chinese bonds China's interbank money rates remained weak on Thursday, dented by the CFFE bonds. The benchmark 10-year contracts fell almost 0.5 percent. But the interbank cash bonds were resilient with the yields of 10-year interest rates bonds inching up 1 bp. The shorter-dated IRS rose slightly, while the longer-dated IRS was little changed.
Stock Market 1. U.S. Equities Wall Street gained on Thursday, led by financial shares, after data showed U.S. economic growth was stronger than previously reported last quarter, helped by robust consumer spending, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq set a record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 69.17 points, or 0.33 percent, to 20,728.49, the S&P 500 gained 6.93 points, or 0.29 percent, to 2,368.06 and the Nasdaq Composite added 16.80 points, or 0.28 percent, to 5,914.34.
2. Hong Kong Equities Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday, weighed by financials and index heavyweight Tencent, with weakness in mainland stocks also hurting sentiment. The benchmark Hang Seng index dropped 0.4 percent to 24,301.09 points, while the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index lost 0.8 percent to 10,355.71.
3. China Equities The Shanghai Composite Index fell almost 1 percent on Thursday, extending its losses to the fourth consecutive day. Individual stocks dropped across the board on accelerated concern over quarter-end tightening liquidity. Boosted by investment theme, capital is expected to flow back to stock market on bargain hunting after the Qingming Festival.
|